Study reveals $45 billion investment needed to meet sustainable aviation fuel targets by 2030

A new study by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Kearney reveals that capital expenditures required to meet Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) demand by 2030 could reach $45 billion. According to the report, “Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Case Studies and Implications for Investment,” global SAF demand is expected to reach 17 million tons per year by 2030, representing about 5% of total jet fuel consumption. By the end of 2024, production capacity will be 4.4 million tons per year, with an additional 6.9 million tons per year expected from new refineries and facility expansions. However, to meet 2030 demand, an extra 5.8 million tons of production capacity is needed by 2026.

Scaling up SAF production requires urgent action. The total capital expenditure needed to meet SAF demand by 2030 is estimated to be between $19 billion and $45 billion, depending on the technology mix. The capital landscape for SAF investments is complex, requiring navigation of policy, market, technology, and feedstock risks, particularly through long-term policy consistency and feedstock security.

The report identifies 10 financial methods to support SAF investments, including research grants for early-stage technologies, multilateral development bank support, loan guarantees, long-term offtake agreements, green bonds, private equity, and infrastructure investments. Collaboration between producers, governments, and investors is essential for scaling SAF production. “If we are serious about hitting SAF targets by 2030, SAF producers, governments, and investors will need to work together to de-risk production and scale employment,” said Kearney’s Global Sustainability Director, Claudia Galea.

World Economic Forum‘s Giorgio Parolini added, “Banks will often view SAF projects as high risk due to their novelty, extended timelines, and reliance on emerging technologies. Project developers must bear this in mind when attempting to attract capital. For SAF to reach scalable production, a shift in financing mechanisms will be necessary, leveraging both private and public capital to mitigate the perceived risks and catalyse a substantial cash flow into the sector.”